Australia’s total imports of wood products were valued at AUD1.824 billion year-ended June, up a very modest 0.9% on the prior month, and still down a sizeable 13.4% on the prior year. The sole driver for the increased value of imports was sawn softwood products.
As we can see here, the total annualised value of Australia’s wood products imports had been on the slide since February 2019, until June turned the corner up. Just as notable as the lift in annual export value is that in June, total import value was up a strong 26.5%, compared to May.
Fig 41
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The driver for the rise in Australia’s wood products import values was sawn softwood imports. The second chart shows that rise, and we note that the line looks pretty similar to that for the total value of Australia’s wood products imports. No surprise there because sawn softwood is the dominant import product by both volume and value.
Fig 42
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Unsurprisingly, given the value chart, by volume, Australia’s imports of sawn softwood lifted in June 2020, rising to a thirteen-month high of 47,706 m3 and ending a long run of annualised import declines, as imports totalled 455,026 m3 for the year-ended June.
Fig 43
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Although it is a little busy (bear with us), this chart shows imports of sawn softwood by their specific grade.
Fig 44
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While there are plenty of specific grades, we are able to focus our attention on just those that dominate the sawn softwood arena. They are of course the structural grades. Below we identify the three structural grades that have the greatest influence over imports, over all time periods.
Fig 45
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As an example, in June 2020, imports of these three grades totalled 33,647 m3 in June, accounting for 72% of total sawn softwood imports by volume. The recent experience for each of these three grades of structural sawn timber is set out in charts below.
What each of the charts does, and they certainly do in combination, is demonstrate that their import volumes have not been contra-indicative of their prices. That is, as imports for each of the grades has moved up and down, and most recently and over the last few months, up again, prices have not moved in the opposite direction.
There has been price softening in the Dressed other than Radiata grade, but that has come at the same time as declining volumes. No evidence of volume chasing price there.
More is the point, for the structural grade designated with .13, its volumes have increased as its average import price has increased.
Fig 46
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This is all evidence of the market maturing and settling, despite the challenges of the current period. Long may it continue.