Northern log prices patchy

Latest northern Hemisphere log prices have seen variability, but in general, the main log prices were lower in the September quarter. Most pine prices were lower, especially in the US, reflecting soft housing starts. In Europe, the situation was more mixed, except for a dramatic decline in log prices in Germany.

Measured on a delivered basis, in the US south, log prices were variable, but the main downturn was for Pine, recording a 4.1% decline from the September quarter of 2018 to the September quarter of 2019, as the chart below shows.

Fig.15

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The situation was similar on the West Coast, where pine (described as White Woods) experienced a whopping 18.2% decline over the same period. However, as the chart shows, the decline came after a sharp and ultimately short-lived price spike for the region’s logs.

Fig.16

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Albeit for the month of September, European pine log prices, especially those ex forest, were markedly lower as the final chart demonstrates. The table shows that conversely, ex-mill prices grew from September 2018 to September 2019.

Fig.17

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The relationship between log prices and sawnwood prices may not be absolute, but there is still a relationship. Retaining an up to date understanding of log prices remains a relevant pursuit.