Decisions on forest management are made under risk and uncertainty because the stand development cannot be predicted exactly and future timber prices are unknown. Deterministic calculations may lead to biased advice on optimal forest management.
This new study optimised continuous cover management of boreal forest in a situation where tree growth, regeneration, and timber prices include uncertainty.
Timber price caused most uncertainty in the calculation of the net present value of a certain management schedule. Ingrowth and climate trend were less significant sources of risk and uncertainty than tree growth.
Overall, adaptive optimisation and management led to 6%–14% higher net present values than obtained in management that was based on anticipatory optimisation. Increasing risk aversion of the forest landowner led to earlier cuttings in a mature stand. The effect of risk attitude on optimisation results was small.
Click here for source (Forest Ecosystems)
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