The latest forecasts of sawn softwood sales, prepared by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics (ABARES) demonstrate how difficult the forecaster’s task can be.
As the details demonstrate, even well-constructed forecasts can be side of the mark, and over very short time periods. That is the way of the market after-all.
The most recent ‘actuals’ for the March quarter, are showing increased divergence from the forecasts, which appears to be a function of a market with such runaway demand for structural timber that production and sales of other grades could be being sacrificed to help keep the nation built.
The details and charts below summarise the forecasts from ABARES, both the accuracy of the most recent forecasts and the latest forecasts for the June (current) and subsequent quarters.
Treated Structural
Actual sales in the March 2021 quarter (180,270 m3) were weaker than expected, falling below the February 2021 forecast (191,428 m3) by 11,157 m3 or 5.8%. Actual sales for the March 2021 quarter were inside the 95% prediction interval for all previous forecasts.
Looking forward, sales are forecast to increase in the June and September quarters of 2021 by 5.3%, 5.2%, respectively, before falling over the next two quarters by 10.5% and 4.2%. Sales in the March quarter of 2022 are expected to be 9,204 m3 or 5.1% lower than sales in the March 2021 quarter.
Fig25
Structural less than 120mm
Actual sales in the March 2021 quarter (148,049 m3) were much weaker than expected, falling below the February 2021 forecast (180,768 m3) by 32,719 m3 or 18.1%. Actual sales for the March 2021 quarter were outside the 95% prediction interval for the previous two forecasts.
Looking forward, sales are forecast to increase in the June and September quarters of 2021 by 7.2%, 5.5%, respectively, before falling over the next two quarters by 18.3% and 8.0%. Sales in the March quarter of 2022 are expected to be 22,164 m3 or 15.0% lower than sales in the March 2021 quarter.
Fig26
Structural greater than 120mm
Actual sales in the March 2021 quarter (11,452 m3) were also much weaker than expected, falling below the February 2021 forecast (15,176 m3) by 3,723 m3 or 24.5%.
Looking forward, sales are forecast to increase in the June and September quarters of 2021 by 11.7%, 5.2%, respectively, before falling over the next two quarters by 18.5% and 8.3%. Sales in the March quarter of 2022 are expected to be 1,395 m3 or 12.2% lower than sales in the March 2021 quarter.
Fig27
Landscaping products
Actual sales in the March 2021 quarter (23,949 m3) were much weaker than expected, falling below the February 2021 forecast (32,571 m3) by 8,621 m3 or 26.5%. Actual sales for the March 2021 quarter were outside the 95% prediction interval for the previous forecast.
Looking forward, sales are forecast to increase over the next three quarters by 18.5%, 20.0% and 10.4%, before falling ion the March quarter of 2022 by 21.6%. Sales in the March quarter of 2022 are expected to be 5,493 m3 or 22.9% higher than sales in the March 2021 quarter.
Fig28
