• News

Detached housing approvals up 22.4% as market keeps growing

 

Dwelling approvals continued their growth in February 2021, with total approvals up 23.4% on February 2020, totalling 18,931 separate approvals. Detached house approvals drove that increase, lifting 65% on the year earlier to a record 13,689 approvals. On an annualised basis, total approvals are up 7.0% to 188,590 dwellings, while houses are up 22.4% to 126,535 dwellings.

 

It is as important to avoid ‘month trading’ your housing data, as it is to avoid ‘day trading’ your superannuation. So, the important line in the chart and table below is the upwards trend line, of the last year. It seems hard to recall it for some reason, but back a year ago, expectations were that housing had turned the corner. It had done so, and when we pumped it full of stimulus steroids, look how it grew!

image012

 

Houses

Townhouses (1 Storey)

Townhouses (2+ Storeys)

Flats (1 or 2 Storey)

Flats (3 Storey)

Flats (4-8 Storey)

Flats (9+ Storey)

YE Feb ‘20

        103,374

            6,953

          19,839

            1,331

            2,296

          15,562

          24,437

YE Feb ‘21

        126,535

            6,922

          20,555

               814

            2,146

          14,603

          17,015

% Change

22.4%

-0.4%

3.6%

-38.8%

-6.5%

-6.2%

-30.4%

The data also strongly suggests that the growth has been all about houses and much less about the multi-residential sector. That is clearly true.

Notably, the ABS now separates dwellings of 4-8 storeys and those above 9 storeys. We will discuss this further in coming months. Note that there is a very real difference between the performance of mid-rise and high-rise, in this data series.

Turning to state-based results, the approvals for Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia have been particularly strong over the last three months. While those in New South Wales showing softening into early 2021. The Victorian approvals grew 3.8% over the year-ended February 2021 and are only larger, in the context of New South Wales (+1.1%). Because they continue to be the largest number as the table beneath the chart shows.

For genuine growth, we look no further than Queensland (+12.0%) and Western Australia (+44.0%) for the significant out-performers. The housing sector, in both states, must be flat-out and flat-strapped right now!

image014

 

NSW

Vic

Qld

SA

WA

Tas

NT

ACT

YE Feb ‘20

49,933

59,045

31,005

11,626

14,706

3,117

533

5,067

YE Feb ‘21

50,482

61,285

34,714

12,352

21,183

3,697

741

5,019

% Change

1.1%

3.8%

12.0%

6.2%

44.0%

18.6%

39.0%

-0.9%

 

Posted Date: April 22, 2021

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