Annualised import volumes dipped almost across-the-board in September, as concerns continued to mount that strong growth in demand from the housing sector could place supply of sawn timber under pressure in 2021. Underscoring the challenges, imports of sawn softwood (most of which is structural grades) were down 0.3% in September, and on an annualised basis, were 28.0% lower than a year earlier.
As the chart below displays, the total annual volume of imports was marginally higher (0.7%) in September than in August, but all of that was due to modestly higher Plywood imports (up 0.5%) and a lift in Mouldings imports (up 0.7%).
To go straight to the dashboard and take a closer look at the data, click here.
From a local supply perspective, all of the attention is on framing timber, shown in the mustard yellow band at the bottom of the chart. Year-ended September, imports totalled 468,195 m3.
In the sawn softwood group, there are three dominating products, which we have sought to accentuate in the slightly busy chart below.
To go straight to the dashboard and take a closer look at the data, click here.
The three grades and their relative import volumes over the last year are set out below. The table demonstrates that these main grades of sawn softwood product imports have experienced an almost 30% decline over the year-ended September 2020.
|
Grade |
YE Sep ‘19 |
YE Sep ‘20 |
% Change |
|
4407.11.10.40 Dressed Structural <120mm (excl Radiata Pine) |
250,556 |
139,597 |
-44.2% |
|
4407.11.99.04 Dressed Structural, Treated >120mm (excl Radiata Pine) |
109,043 |
67,245 |
-38.3% |
|
4407.12.10.13 Dressed Structural, Fir or Spruce <120mm |
97,644 |
114,816 |
+17.6% |
|
Total |
457,243 |
321,658 |
-29.7% |
A full dashboard of sawn softwood imports is available on the FWPA data dashboard, here.
Because some products – especially items of builders’ joinery – are imported with value only recorded, it is important to examine imports by value, as well as by volume.
The total value of Australia’s imports was at a four-month low in September, at AUD155 million on a free on board basis, as the chart below shows. The annualised value of imports wasAUD1.816 billion, shown by the red line.
To go straight to the dashboard and take a closer look at the data, click here.
Although well short of their annual peaks, it is notable that the second half of 2020 has seen a sustained lift in the month-by-month value of imports. That is commensurate with the levels of building activity in the local economy. Although it has contributed to some increases in import volumes, that is yet to be realised for the critical sawn softwood sector.
