Imports of sawn softwood timber were 524,257m3 down -47.78% for the year ending November 2023. Though still prone to inevitable monthly volatility, imports are beginning to stabilise and look likely to settle somewhere close to 40,000 m3 on average per month over the first half of 2024.
The total weighted average import price in November was AUDFob643.22/m3 down 25.9% on a year earlier and 4.7% lower than in October 2023.
| m3 & AUDFob/m3 | Monthly Imports | Monthly Wtd Ave Price |
| Nov-22 | 63,001.3 | 867.53 |
| Oct-23 | 37,442.8 | 674.75 |
| Nov-23 | 55,327.7 | 643.22 |
The second chart provides an alternate view of the same data, placing both free-on-board and ‘landed’ or costs, insurance and freight (Cif) prices in comparison to the annual import volume.
It demonstrates shipping and freight costs have been in decline and the differential between them has slipped to AUD80.45/m3 – notably down 63% from a year prior, well below the five-year average of AUD115.60/m3.
Australian Sawn Softwood Imports: Jan ’21 – Nov ‘23 (m3 & AUDFob/m3 and AUDCif/m3)
Source: ABS, FWPA and IndustryEdge
| AUD/m3 | Free on Board (Fob) | Landed (Cif) | Differential |
| Nov-22 | 867.53 | 1,085.23 | 217.70 |
| Nov-23 | 643.22 | 723.67 | 80.45 |
| % Change | -25.9% | -33.3% | -63.0% |
The monthly data suggests some stability maybe entering the market with the three most recent November volumes in similar territory ranging from 60,232 m3 in November 2021 to 55,329 m3 in November 2023.
The category for imported softwood products (HTISC 4407) covers twenty-six products, as set out below.
Of these, four products represent most of the volume:
- 11.10.34 (113,761 m3 -35.6%)
- 11.10.39 (1187,802 m3 -32.4%)
- 11.99.15 (89,169 m3 -5.1%)
- 12.10.16 (124,233 m3 -66.6%)
However, looking at the outliers in the trade data, we can see two products which have grown significantly, albeit off a low base. These products are:
- 11.91.42 (3,789 m3 +2,363.5%)
- 12.99.19 (3,447 m3 +628.8%)
The following sets out something of a tour of some of this data, by grade, noting that some of these are for grades that are >120 cm2 and even some that is >450 cm2, with the details displayed in the charts.
4407.11.91.42
The data shows a periodic increase in monthly volumes, with other spikes occurring in 2019 and 2020. The current activity appears to be in line with earlier spikes and is associated with similar pricing.
This volume is virtually all coming from Brazil although in previous periods, significant supply has been imported from Finland, Lithuania, Russia.
4407.12.99.19
In this case the country of origin is broader with most of the supply coming from Germany and Lithuania.
Both products appear to not be for the making of ‘staves’ one with a larger section of 450cm2 and the other 120cm2 to 450cm2.
However as is often the case with the obscure descriptions in international tariff codes it remains unclear what the end use might be. A quick online search suggests that a “stave is a vertical wooden post or plank in a building or other structure”.
So, clear as mud! If these bigger pieces are not posts or planks, they are what, exactly?
To solve this ‘mystery’, feedback from any reader on what these products are used for would be welcome.
