In pursuit of the perfect data series, to inform business decision-making, FWPA reviews the data it publishes on a regular basis, and makes detailed adjustments to the data, to provide complete data and improve accuracy.
The following sets out a process that has been used to rebuild the chip export trade data which have been ‘lost’ from view.
Introduction
Official trade data is published by the ABS based on data provided by Australian Customs for Imports and a compulsory lodgement process for Exports. All products are categorised under an internationally harmonised tariff code system. For exports the data collected covers port of loading and country destination and for imports the data collected covers country of origin and port of discharge.
Since 2013, there have been several periods where the ABS has not published the full data for Chip exports. This has created gaps in the time series of the data for these products.
The absence of this data causes problems in interpreting such practical information as the total volume and value of Australia’s exports of wood products classified under Chapter 44 of the tariff code. In addition, where country of destination data is not available, it means the value of individual country trading relationships is not accurate.
To address these problems, work has been undertaken to backfill these historic gaps. This opportunity arises because all countries track trade data, meaning Australia’s export data will be matched by equivalent import data in the country of destination.
This is practical for chip exports because the main countries Australia exports to are Japan, China and to a lesser extent Taiwan.
An assessment of the official import data for those countries has therefore been undertaken, using the following methodology.
Methodology
To start with consideration has been made of 2 challenges with using the equivalent import trade data. These are:
Timing issues – meaning the months of activity exports vs imports do not match because woodchips shipped from Australia in one month may not be delivered until the next month. However, over a reasonable period, the volume tonnes generally match. In comparing data for the period Jan ‘13 to Feb ‘16 where both Australian export data and Japanese and Chinese Import data has been assessed for 44012120 (Coniferous Chips) total volume is 2,068,467 tonnes (Australian Official Export data) compared to 2,067,209 tonnes (Japan, Chinese Official Import data) a variation of 1,258 tonnes or 0.1%. So, while individual months may not exactly match the reality is that over a period of months the total volume is reasonably comparable.
Trade values – Exports are valued on an FOB value, while imports are valued on Customs values, which is effectively the CIF value (ie. includes the loading and shipping costs). In addition, due to timing differences there may also be some exchange rate variation. In assessing the data for the review period after applying relevant exchange rates (RBA end of month) the variation between the Australian Dollar values AUDFob327,486,870 and the Japanese and Chinese converted values AUDCif465,692,454 is just under 30%. As a consequence the AUD value attributed to the official Japanese and Chinese has been adjusted by 30% to determine a calculated AUDFob value.
Specific Data Gaps
Exports 4401.21.20 Coniferous Chips
May ‘13 to Dec ‘14 (Country of Destination, presented as Unidentified Country)
This means the total volume (bone dry metric tonnes) and total value (AUDFob) has been published for those months, but with no details of the country of destination.
To backfill the country of destination the following steps have been taken:
- The official import data from Japan and China identifies imports from Australia for those months. As mentioned above this has been adjusted for A$ value by 30% to reflect the difference between CIF and FOB values.
- To reconcile with the exports attributed to Unidentified Country the official import data for Japan and China has been adjusted to reflect the relative weightings for Australia’s imports to each country.
- Through this process calculated monthly volumes and values for Japan and China have been determined
Table 1 – 4401.21.20 Backfilled Data Results May ‘13 – Dec ‘14
Exports 4401.21.20 Coniferous Chips
March 2016 to April 2017 (No Country Details, No Australian Total)
This means there has been no data published for Australia’s exports during these months.
In the absence of any official Australian data for these months the import volumes and adjusted A$ value (30% to reflect the difference between CIF and FOB values) for Japan and China have been used.
Table 2 4401.21.20 Backfilled Data Results Mar ‘16 to May ‘17
Exports 4401.22.20 Hardwood Chips
May 2013 to Oct 2014 (No Country)
This means the total volume tonnes and total AUD value has been published for those months but no details of the country of destination.
To backfill the country of destination the following steps have been taken:
- The official import data from Japan and China identifies imports from Australia for those months. As mentioned above this has been adjusted for A$ value by 30% to reflect the difference between CIF and FOB values.
- To reconcile with the exports attributed to Unidentified Country the official import data for Japan and China has been adjusted to reflect the relative weightings for Australia’s imports to each country.
- Through this process calculated monthly volumes and values for Japan and China have been determined
These methods and treatments are in constant use by FWPA and others, to reconstruct data to provide a true, historical picture of trade data.
