The largest single import grade – Dressed Structural (excl. Radiata pine) – saw import volumes peak in January 2019 at an annualised 354,026 m3. Since then it has declined quickly, falling to 305,926 m3 for the year-ended June. That drop off is significant, but not severe, and appears to be mirroring the peak profile back in 2015.
As the chart shows (the green line), import volumes aside, the very big shift has been in pricing. Having climbed rapidly, average import prices are declining just as quickly. In June 2019, the average import price was AUDFob366.11/m3, down 6.1% on the prior month and 6.6% compared with June 2018.
To go straight to the dashboard and take a closer look at the data, click here.
Examining the volume profile for this prominent import grade, we can see that the supplier countries have changed. From the start of 2018, supplies from Russia and Germany have become more prominent. Their growth appears stellar, but in the year-ended June 2018 they had only been suppliers for six months. The continuing growth in imports from Estonia is similarly under-stated here, but importantly, Estonia is the largest supplier.
| YE Jun ’18 | YE Jun ’19 | % Change | |
| Austria | 21,774 | 32,512 | 49.3 |
| Russia | 13,936 | 37,438 | 168.6 |
| Germany | 16,035 | 41,996 | 161.9 |
| Estonia | 101,303 | 91,929 | -9.3 |
| Finland | 23,937 | 25,018 | 4.5 |
| Lithuania | 33,286 | 34,066 | 2.3 |
| Sweden | 30,298 | 37,015 | 22.2 |
| Other | 2,096 | 5,952 | 184.0 |
| Total | 242,665 | 305,926 | 26.1% |
Of course, not all softwoods are the same, so to examine the imports in full, it is important to examine the imports of Dressed Spruce or Fir. This delineation of products only commenced at the start of 2017, so the data is somewhat incomplete over time and longer term comparisons are a little difficult.
However, the last few months are, as the chart shows, quite clear. The decline in imports is well underway, and the price has been febrile to say the least.
On an annualised basis, imports were 2.9% higher over the year-ended June, than a year before. But there is a symmetry to the current data that will, as with the major grade defined above, end over the next few months.
As the chart shows (the green line), average import pricing has moved dramatically. In June 2019, the average import price was AUDFob369.10/m3, up 33.6% on the prior month but down a more rational 6.4% compared with June 2018. Notably, the annual figure is very similar to the equivalent pine product described initially.
The May 2019 average import price dropped dramatically before returning to trend in June. The price experience for the single month appears an anomaly.
To go straight to the dashboard and take a closer look at the data, click here.
The increase in supply from Germany does not appear to have had a dramatic effect on price over the last year, nor the decrease in supply from Estonia. One reason for this may be the stability offered by the supplies from Sweden.
| YE Jun ’18 | YE Jun ’19 | % Change | |
| Canada | 19,778 | 142 | -99.3% |
| Estonia | 22,469 | 11,477 | -48.9% |
| Finland | 2,078 | 4,030 | 93.9% |
| Sweden | 42,912 | 42,738 | -0.4% |
| Germany | 27,261 | 59,876 | 119.6% |
| New Zealand | 8,824 | 7,968 | -9.7% |
| Other | 96 | 755 | 686.5% |
| Total | 123,418 | 126,986 | 2.9% |
It is equally relevant to consider the other significant structural import grade, the Roughsawn equivalent of the Dressed Structural grades detailed above. Its pricing profile is very similar to that experienced for Dressed Structural pine grade detailed above.
However, until recently it experienced more stable imports on an annualised basis, only dipping more substantially in the last few months. As a result, on a year-end basis, the only way was down and Roughsawn Structural (excl. Radiata) import volume is 11.9% lower than was the case a year earlier.
While the price profile is similar, the actual price is modestly higher over most time periods. In June 2019, the average import price was AUDFob399.18/m3, down 0.9% on the prior month and 3.7% higher compared with June 2018. So, this grade is more stable as to price than the larger volume Dressed Structural pine grade.
To go straight to the dashboard and take a closer look at the data, click here.
The table shows that with the exception of Finland and Latvia whose imports lifted from a low base, the major supplier nations all saw their contributions fall relatively sharply. Major importers appear to have reasonably equally responded to the challenges of a falling market.
| YE Jun ’18 | YE Jun ’19 | % Change | |
| Canada | 1,088 | 216 | -80.1 |
| Czech Republic | 99,859 | 82,687 | -17.2 |
| Germany | 24,230 | 16,281 | -32.8 |
| Poland | 14,202 | 9,755 | -31.3 |
| Finland | 290 | 7,922 | 2,631.7 |
| Latvia | 838 | 6,401 | 663.8 |
| Other | 250 | 728 | 191.2 |
| Total | 140,757 | 123,990 | -11.9% |
What the pricing data for the major sawn structural import grades tells us is that volumes are under pressure. Prices have started to move down in response and the market’s maturity is such that (with a few exceptions), prices are adjusting in a mainly orderly manner.
