Australia’s imports of sawn softwood products continue to play their ‘buffer stock’ role in the supply chain, shifting down progressively as the market has continued to weaken. Imports of sawn softwood timber totalled 514,733 m3, down 45.9% over the year ending January 2024.
The chart shows the significant decline in imports and with it, the inevitably deteriorating price, through to January 2024. The latter point – a deteriorating price – should not be relied on for coming months with latest news from North America showing increased prices for sawn lumber prices, including for the supply from Europe.
After a rebound in prices through to November 2022, when prices reached AUDFob868/m3, the decline has largely continued to date. The weighted average import price fell to AUDFob578/m3, down a moderate 4.1% compared to a month earlier.
However, it will be lost on few that these volumes were shipped in October and November and were priced accordingly.
Imports for the month of January totalled 43,430 m3, up 9.8% on the previous January, when imports totalled 39,541m3.
As the table below demonstrates, there are twenty-six categories or products defined as sawn softwood.
Despite the many products (or at least import codes) there are essentially just four that make up the majority of the volume. They are listed below, with their import volumes and annual percentage changes indicated for the year-ended January 2024:
4407.11.10.34 109,140 m3 -42.4%
4407.11.10.39 103,764 m3 -38.3%
4407.11.99.15 90,169 m3 -16.5%
4407.12.10.16 129,521 m3 -62.1%
We have previously made mention of two outlier products (codes) in the trade data which have experienced significant import growth, albeit off a low base. These products are:
4407.11.91.42 3,901 m3 +2,436.2%
Wood, that: (a) cut to size for making staves; or (b) has a cross-sectional area of 450 cm2 or greater
4407.12.99.19 4,236 m3 +731.4%
Coniferous wood of Fir or Spruce, Roughsawn; not for making staves with a cross-sectional area of 120 cm2 > or < 450 cm2
In addition, January also saw contributions from a product primarily imported from New Zealand:
4407.11.99.07 8,811 m3 +75.9%
Radiata Pine Roughsawn, Having a cross-sectional area less than 120cm2, Untreated
Pricing for this product is observably volatile ranging from AUDFob600/m3 to AUDFob1,500/m3 in normal trade and occasionally, on very light volumes, lifting above AUDFob2,500/m3.
There are several source countries for this product, but New Zealand is the major supplier, with its year-ended January 2024 contribution totalling 7,299 m3, up 94.6% on the previous period.
