Having trended steadily downwards over several years, until the end of 2013, sales of softwood poles, have seen a more than year-long renaissance, growing by 19.85% for the year to end January 2015, compared with the prior year. The staple of the horticulture and viticulture sector has performed strongly, but remains below the heights achieved in prior years and additionally, there is some evidence of demand softening in the early part of 2014.
As the chart below displays, sales of poles were waning through the long period where the Australian Dollar was particularly strong against the US Dollar, especially in 2013. This was a period when agricultural and other rural production activities were suppressed and as a result, it appears sales of softwood poles for those sectors, was also depressed.
While the year-on-year growth in sales of poles is impressive and doubtless welcomed, further examination of the data on the FWPA Data Dashboard shows other results worthy of note. For instance, sales in January 2015, typically the second quietest month in the year, were 2,148 m3, just 2.5% higher than for January 2014. However, the quietest month, December 2014, was some 23.9% lower than for December 2013.
The suggestion from these softer figures is that demand, though perhaps still growing, may be softening under the weight of the general economic conditions applicable to Australia now. If that proves to be the case, we might come to consider the sales trends and movements in poles as one possible indicator of immediate future economic conditions.
For further details, go to the FWPA Data Dashboard.
