Sales of domestically produced sawn softwood products slipped in August and softened 1.5% year-ended August 2021, compared to the prior year. At 2.999 million m3, the year-ended August sales are around 126,000 m3 below the apparent peak of 3.125 million m3, reached year-ended May.
As befits a sector doing literally all it can to meet the explosion in demand for timber, the month-on-month sales data has been patchy over the last year. That has of course been compounded by the vicissitudes of modern pandemic life and the disruptions wrought upon the supply chain.
The chart here shows monthly sales in August were down 19.2% compared with the prior month, totalling 224,024 m3.
To go straight to the dashboard and take a closer look at the data, click here.
It is a little less clear, but the year-ended sales line, though it is below the recent peak, remains relatively close to peak sales. Indeed, the peak annual sales were recorded four years ago, when year-ended August 2017 they reached 3.193 million m3. Annualised sales the last year are only 6.1% off that all-time high, and the ramp rate for production has been nothing short of sensational the last year.
Of course, the devil is in the detail and there is no doubting there are strategic shifts underway in local sawn softwood supplies.
This is reflected in market subtleties that saw sales of Structural untreated products down and Structural treated up. So much is that the case that the Structural Treated <120mm grade is now the largest single sales grade.
Year-ended August, Structural Treated accounted for 23.6% of total sales, while Structural Untreated <120mm accounted for 22.1% of the total. Lurking just behind and continuing to grow its hair, the other very large volume grade – Packaging – saw its share lift to 21.1% of the total.
While Packaging provides a clue to some of the shift, it is the Outdoor Domestic grade that might best exemplify the strategic shifts. Its 10.1% share of total sales is at record levels and it continues to grow its position in the market, relative to the other products.
The chart and table below display these details.
To go straight to the dashboard and take a closer look at the data, click here.
|
YE Aug ’20 |
YE Aug ’21 |
% Change |
|
|
Outdoor Domestic |
277,486 |
303,722 |
9.5% |
|
Fencing |
106,419 |
106,684 |
0.2% |
|
Appearance |
17,191 |
23,076 |
34.2% |
|
Structural < 120mm |
734,120 |
662,714 |
-9.7% |
|
Structural > 120mm |
59,680 |
58,006 |
-2.8% |
|
Treated Structural < 120mm |
629,659 |
707,520 |
12.4% |
|
Treated Structural > 120mm |
50,646 |
65,771 |
29.9% |
|
Landscaping |
134,468 |
115,341 |
-14.2% |
|
Poles |
40,262 |
33,537 |
-16.7% |
|
Packaging |
610,909 |
632,113 |
3.5% |
|
Ungraded |
265,388 |
224,892 |
-15.3% |
|
Export |
117,115 |
65,142 |
-44.4% |
|
Total |
3,043,343 |
2,998,518 |
-1.5% |
There is more than a little to ponder here. In a market absolutely screaming for structural timber to build houses, how does the share of Packaging and Outdoor grades grow so strongly?
No simple answers present, but there are some clues, as we have discussed previously in Statistics Count.
Obviously, sales rely on demand, so clearly there is consumption of these grades.
Beyond that, the available log supply may be better suited to these grades, and/or the margins available from them may be better than for the structural grades. Improved recovery rates may also have more impact on Packaging and Outdoor grades than on Structural grades.
One other possibility worthy of consideration is that mills and lines producing Structural grades have capacity limits in drying and possibly other bottle-necks that may not be as prevalent for the other grades.
In what appears to be a fibre-starved future, these are the matters that will exercise more thought and consideration when examining headline sales data.
