ABARES quarterly forecasts show that the main locally produced structural softwood grades exceeded forecasts for the March quarter, with the Treated Structural grade 2.8% higher than the forecast and the untreated Structural <120 mm forecast was beaten by 1.3%. Significantly, both forecasts were within the 95% confidence intervals. Of the four grades for which there are forecasts, three are expected to experience sales growth in the June quarter, underscoring the still solid sales being reported each month.
As a summary, the table below shows each of the grades for which there are forecasts, including the current forecasts.
| Grade | 2019 Q1 | 2019 Q2 | ||
| Forecast Sales | Actual Sales | % Variation | Forecast Sales | |
| Treated | 159,972 | 164,396 | 2.8% | 171,060 |
| Structural (Untreated) <120mm | 145,530 | 147,349 | 1.2% | 156,817 |
| Structural (Untreated) >120mm | 12,698 | 11,868 | -6.5% | 13,154 |
| Landscaping Products | 32,132 | 28,453 | -11.4% | 30,822 |
Details for each of the four grades are set out below, along with the charts.
Treated Structural
Actual sales of aggregate treated structural pine in the March 2019 quarter (164,396 m3) were stronger than expected, exceeding the February 2019 forecast (159,972 m3) by 2.8 per cent or 4,424 m3. Actual sales volumes for March 2019 were inside the 95 per cent prediction interval for the previous forecast but outside of the 95 per cent prediction intervals for earlier forecasts.
Looking forward, the updated forecasts for the June 2019 quarter onwards have been revised upwards with sales forecast to rise in the June 2019 quarter by 4.1 per cent to 171,060 m3, in line with the seasonal construction cycle. Sales are expected to increase again in the September 2019 quarter by 5.1 per cent before falling in the December 2019 quarter by 4.3 per cent. Sales are expected to remain steady going into the first quarter of 2020, finishing at around 171,895 m3 (4.6 per cent higher than current sales).
Structural less than 120mm
Actual sales of structural pine less than 120mm in the March 2019 quarter (147,349 m3) were slightly stronger than expected, exceeding the February 2019 forecast (145,530 m3) by 1.3 per cent or 1,820 m3. Actual sales volumes for March 2019 were inside the 95 per cent prediction intervals for all previous forecasts.
Looking forward, the updated forecasts for the June 2019 quarter onwards have been revised upwards with sales forecast to rise in the June 2019 quarter by 6.4 per cent to 156,817 m3, in line with the seasonal construction cycle. Sales are expected to increase again in the September 2019 quarter by 6.0 per cent before falling in the December 2019 quarter by 11.7 per cent. Sales are expected to fall by a further 4.6 per cent going into the first quarter of 2020, finishing at around 140,073 m3 (4.9 per cent lower than current sales).
The other grades for which ABARES produces forecasts were outside the confidence intervals, with the Structural >120mm grade 6.5% short of the forecast and Landscaping products 11.4% above the forecast.
Structural (untreated) greater than 120mm
Actual sales of structural pine greater than 120mm in the March 2019 quarter (11,868 m3) were weaker than expected, falling short of the February 2019 forecast (12,698 m3) by 6.5 per cent or 830 m3.
Looking forward, the updated forecasts for the June 2019 quarter onwards have been revised downwards slightly with sales forecast to increase in the June 2019 quarter by 10.8 per cent to 13,154 m3, in line with the seasonal construction cycle. Sales are expected to increase again in the September 2019 quarter by 5.7 per cent before falling in the December 2019 quarter by 11.9 per cent. Sales are expected to fall by a further 4.8 per cent going into the first quarter of 2020, finishing at around 11,657 m3 (1.8 per cent lower than current sales).
Landscaping products
Actual sales of landscaping products in the March 2019 quarter (28,453 m3) were weaker than expected, falling below the February 2019 forecast (32,132 m3) by 11.4 per cent, or 3,679 m3. Actual sales volumes for March 2019 were inside the 95 per cent prediction interval for the previous forecast but outside of the 95 per cent prediction intervals for earlier forecasts.
Looking forward, the updated forecasts for the June 2019 quarter onwards have been revised downwards with sales expected to rise 8.3 per cent in the June 2019 quarter, in line with the historic seasonal cycle. Sales are expected to increase further in the September and December quarters of 2019 by 21.7 per cent and 8.3 per cent, respectively, before falling by 18 per cent in the first quarter of 2020 to finish at around 33,287 m3 (17 per cent higher than current sales).
