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Timber’s mid-rise market share lifts

Timber’s share of the mid-rise market lifted for the second successive year in 2018-19. Although coming from a low base, timber’s share of the market in the 4 to 8 storey building space continues to grow, as this fourth annual mid-rise market share report demonstrates.

The chart here, repeated and explained in more detail later in this important update, shows the lift in market share from a low base.

L2

Background to the mid-rise market development work

Prior to 2016 timber construction for buildings higher than 3 stories was permitted only after the designers could demonstrate compliance with the performance criteria specified in the Building Code of Australia (BCA). This was a lengthy and expensive process.

Therefore, to increase the appeal of timber products to architects and developers in this market the FWPA successfully sought to get the BCA amended to permit “fire protected” timber (light weight) and massive timber building systems in the mid-rise space (up to 25m – generally 8 stories).

In the project’s supporting documentation, a benefit/cost analysis modelled an uptake rate of 5% per annum over a 10-year period following the BCA amendment. To measure the impact of this change to the BCA and the overall effectiveness of the program, the FWPA has sought to measure the market share of timber products within the mid-rise space for class 2, 3 and class 5 buildings. For definition of these building classes, click here to go to the Wood Solutions’ website.

Market share assessment methodology

It is important to understand how FWPA has assessed the market shares.

1.    Cordells Direct database was used as the source of information for the east coast market with the focus on the Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Canberra markets.

 

2.    The time period under consideration is the 2018-19 financial year and specific projects to be included were:

 

a.    Commencement 1/7/18 to 30/6/19 (this eliminates problem about changing nature of project status at different points of time making a search on building approval potentially confusing as in time it will be replaced by commenced construction etc)
b.    Building Type

 

i.               Class 5 Commercial Premises
ii.              Class 2 Residential (units, apartments, flats, townhouses, villas, student & group accommodation)
iii.             Class 3 Aged Care, Hospitality, (Hotels, Motels, Backpacker)

 

c.    Floors 4 and above (although it is important to note that the code change specifically impacts the 4-8 story market)

 

d.    In previous tracking studies we have removed projects that did not involve a structural component as they were alterations and additions to an existing building. However, the project notes available for review did not provide sufficient detail to consistently identify such projects. Hence, any alterations and additions projects may remain in the data set.

 

e.    Projects that were categorized as both Class 5 (Commercial) and Class 2 (Residential) were deemed Class 2 in order to avoid double counting.

 

3.    Project analysis

 

a.    3 interpretations of market share were used

 

Marketshare 1 – number of Timber projects relative to the total number of projects (%)
Marketshare 2 – floor area of timber projects relative to the total floor area of all project (%)
Marketshare 3 – total number of units of timber projects relative total number of units (% – class 2 buildings only)

 

b.    In the event the Cordell project data did not include relevant data such as the number of units or floor area of a project then the weighted average for buildings with the same number of floors was allocated to create a standardised data set.

 

4.    Pool of Timber/CLT projects

 

a.    Assistance was provided by the WoodSolutions Mid Rise advisory team to identify timber/CLT projects which commenced during the period. Information supplied indicated that some 19 projects needed to be considered. A comparison of these projects was then undertaken to see if any were contained in the Cordells project pool. This process resulted in 6 timber/CLT projects being matched.

 

Results speak for themselves

Using the above methodology, a total of 399 Projects were identified with four timber/CLT building in the 4-8 story category and two timber/CLT building in the 9+ category. The pool of projects is summarised as follows:

Class 5

4-20 Storey projects commenced

98

Less: duplicates with Class 2&3 projects

66

Net Class 5 Pool

32 projects


Class 2&3

4-20 Storey projects commenced

367 projects


4+ Storey timber buildings that commenced construction during 2018/19 Financial year

Cordell Project ID

Project Title

Address

Suburb

State

Building Class

Floors

Floor area (m2)

2127524

ROBERTS STREET APARTMENT BUILDING

110 Roberts St

FOOTSCRAY WEST

VIC

2

4

1,382

397859

BALLARAT GOVHUB

45-61 Waterloo Rd

BALLARAT

VIC

5

5

16,552

7171207

OLEA MASON

54 Oleander Dr

MILL PARK

VIC

2

5

3,541

7335026

LA TROBE UNI BUNDOORA STUDENT ACCOM

362 (Lot 2) Newbridge Rd

BUNDOORA

VIC

2

7

3,455

7174627

MONTEREY APARTMENTS

9 & 9A Lambert St

KANGAROO POINT

QLD

2

10

3,781

6933506

NORTHUMBERLAND COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT

2-14 Northumberland St

COLLINGWOOD

VIC

5

13

15,000

Source: Anecdotal industry data compiled by Wood Solutions Mid Rise Advisory Team

 

Total Data Series 4 – 8 storey – Mid-Rise BCA deemed to comply (Total projects)

 

Timber

Concrete and/or Steel

Total

Class 2&3

Projects

3

287

290

Floor Area (m2)

8,378

1,011,327

1,019,705

Apartments

428

14,209

14,638

Class 5

Projects

1

22

23*

Floor Area (m2)

16,552

199220

222,432

Total

Projects

4

309

313

Floor area (m2)

24,930

1,210,547

1,235,477

*note pool of class 5 projects are only Commercial and exclude any mixed residential projects which to avoid double counting have been included as class 2 & 3 buildings

 

Total Data Series 4 – 8 storey (%) Market Share

 Class 2, 3 &5

Timber

Concrete and/or Steel

Total

Projects

1.3%

98.7%

100%

Apartments Class 2 &3

2.9%

97.1%

100%

Floor Area

2.0%

98.0%

100%

 

Total Data Series 4 – 20 storey (Total projects)

 

Timber

Concrete and/or Steel

Total

Class 2&3

Projects

4

363

367

Floor Area (m2)

12,159

1,852,920

1,865,079

Apartments

466

25,588

26,053

Class 5

Projects

2

30

32

Floor Area (m2)

31,552

508,540

540,092

Total

Projects

6

393

399

Floor area (m2)

43,711

2,361,460

2,405,171

 

Total Data Series 4 – 20 story (%)

 

Timber

Concrete and/or Steel

Total

Projects

1.5%

98.5%

100%

Apartments Class 2 &3

1.8%

98.2%

100%

Floor Area

1.8%

98.2%

100%

 

Cumulative performance shows solid improvements

This is the fourth tracking study undertaken since 2015-16 which means we can start to compare progress against previous years.

 

Market Share

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

4-20 Storey projects

412

756

669

399

Projects

0.97%

0.40%

0.60%

1.50%

Floor Area

0.65%

0.87%

0.57%

1.80%

Apartments Class 2 &3

0.60%

na

na

1.80%

4-8 Storey projects

317

568

505

313

Projects

1.26%

0.18%

0.59%

1.30%

Floor Area

1.73%

0.38%

1.59%

2.00%

Apartments Class 2 &3

1.66%

0.20%

1.41%

2.90%

 

L1  

Conclusion

When considered against the earlier studies we are seeing an upward trajectory from a low base. It was also interesting to note that the pool of anecdotal timber projects, of 19 which was substantial, only matched with 6 projects in the Cordell data base. It is unclear why all 19 of these projects were not covered in the Cordell database and further thought will be given to how to identify those projects in subsequent studies.

 

Jim Houghton

Statistics & Economics Manager, FWPA

 

Detailed Data – Analysis of all projects by building class

Class 2&3 Buildings

Total Market Opportunity Class 2&3 Buildings 4 -20 Storey (# of projects)

 

Timber

Concrete and/or Steel

Total

Projects

4

363

367

Floor Area

12,159

1,852,920

1,865,079

Apartments

466

25,588

26,053


Total Market Opportunity Class 2&3 Building 4 -20 Storey Market Share (% of projects)

 

Timber

Concrete and/or Steel

Total

Projects

1.1%

98.9%

100%

Floor Area

0.7%

99.3%

100%

Apartments

1.8%

98.2%

100%


Total Class 2&3 Building 4 – 8 storey – Mid-Rise BCA deemed to comply (# of projects)

 

Timber

Concrete and/or Steel

Total

Projects

3

287

290

Floor Area (m2)

8,378

1,011,327

1,019,705

Apartments

428

14,209

14,638


Total Class 2&3 Building 4 – 8 storey – Mid-Rise BCA deemed to comply (% of projects)

 

Timber

Concrete and/or Steel

Total

Projects

1.0%

99.0%

100%

Floor Area

0.8%

99.2%

100%

Apartments

2.9%

97.1%

100%


Class 5 Buildings

Total Market Opportunity Class 5 Buildings 4 -20 Storey (# of projects)

 

Timber

Concrete and/or Steel

Total

Projects

2

30

32

Floor Area

31,552

508,540

540,092


Total Market Opportunity Class 5 Building 4 -20 Storey Market Share (% of projects)

 

Timber

Concrete and/or Steel

Total

Projects

6.3%

93.7%

100%

Floor Area

5.8%

94.2%

100%


Total Class 5 Building 4 – 8 storey – Mid-Rise BCA deemed to comply (# of projects)

 

Timber

Concrete and/or Steel

Total

Projects

1

22

23

Floor Area (m2)

16,552

199,220

215,772


Total Class 5 Building 4 – 8 storey – Mid-Rise BCA deemed to comply (% of projects)

 

Timber

Concrete and/or Steel

Total

Projects

4.3%

95.7%

100%

Floor Area

7.7%

92.3%

100%

 

 

Posted Date: April 6, 2020

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