Purpose
The Leakage Modelling Review of the Proposed ‘Multiple-use Public Native Forests’ Method, developed by Industry Edge for FWPA and industry stakeholders, assesses the emissions leakage risks associated with the proposed Improved Native Forest Management in Multiple-use Public Native Forests Method (INFM method).
Key findings
- The INFM method carries a high risk of emissions leakage, primarily due to ongoing demand for wood products in the housing sector.
- Ending native forest harvesting does not reduce demand; it simply shifts supply to other sources or to higher-emission substitute materials.
- Substitution will occur in two main forms:
- To other wood sources, potentially leading to equivalent or higher emissions, including from imports.
- To high-carbon materials such as steel, concrete, and aluminium, as acknowledged by the method’s proponents.
- There are multiple, systemic leakage points in the proposed INMF method, making leakage widespread and difficult to control.
- In summary, there is a pronounced risk that emissions leakage under the proposed INFM method will compromise the objective of reducing national emissions.
