Forecasts point to mainly higher sales in 2021, easing as year ends [3 of 3]

Latest forecasts produced by ABARES for FWPA, provide an insight into expectations of continued growth in sales through most of 2021, for three of the four grades covered by the forecast methodology.

The details below, and the charts make clear that the forecasts in July failed to pick up the big lift in sales recorded in the September quarter. ABARES was not alone in that situation of course, with almost no one predicting the growth that was ultimately experienced.

Details for the four grades for which forecasts are prepared, are displayed below.

Treated Structural

Actual sales in the December 2020 quarter (187,234 m3) were almost exactly aligned with the October 2020 forecast (188,438 m3), differing by only 0.6% or 1,204 m3. Actual sales for the December 2020 quarter were inside the 95% prediction interval for all previous forecasts.

Looking forward, sales are forecast to increase in the first three quarters of 2021 by 2.2%, 6.5% and 4.1%, respectively, before falling 12.3% in the last quarter of 2021. Sales in the December quarter of 2021 are expected to be 0.6% (1,112 m³) lower than sales in the December 2020 quarter.

Structural less than 120mm

Actual sales in the December 2020 quarter (178,956 m³) were closely aligned with the October 2020 forecast (180,839 m³), falling short by only 1.0% or 1,883 m³.  Actual sales for the December 2020 quarter were inside the 95% prediction interval for all previous forecasts.

Looking forward, sales are forecast to increase in the first three quarters of 2021 by 1.0%, 9.3% and 4.8%, respectively, before falling 21.4% in the last quarter of 2021. Sales in the December quarter of 2021 are expected to be 9.0% (16,117 m³) lower than sales quartering December 2020 quarter.

Structural greater than 120mm

Actual sales in the December 2020 quarter (15,677 m³) were stronger than expected, exceeding the October 2020 forecast (14,342 m³) by 9.3% or 1,335 m³. 

Looking forward, sales are forecast to fall in the March quarter of 2021 by 3.2% before rising in the June and September quarters by 9.1% and 4.5%, respectively. Sales are expected to drop in the December quarter of 2021 by 21.5%, finishing 13.4% (2,103 m³) lower than sales in the December 2020 quarter.

Landscaping products

Actual sales in the December 2020 quarter (39,902 m³) were weaker than expected, falling below the October 2020 forecast (43,664 m³) by 8.6%, or 3,762 m³. Actual sales for the December 2020 quarter were inside the 95% prediction interval for all previous forecasts.

Looking forward, sales are expected to fall in the March quarter of 2021 by 18.4% before rising over the next three quarters by 6.7%, 20.3% and 7.3%, respectively. Sales in the December quarter of 2021 are expected to be 12.3% or 4,922 m³ higher than sales in the December 2020 quarter.