Modest though it may be, the 0.8% rise in Retail Sales recorded in February 2019 is very welcome news for a sector that has been under serious pressure for much of the last few years. Whether the rise – which contributed to a 3.1% annualized rise – can be sustained is a different question, but one that seems possible with a likely fall in interest rates and personal tax cuts expected to be in place before the end of the financial year.
The monthly Retail Sales growth was the highest since November 2017’s stellar 1.3%, as the chart below shows.
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Annualised Retail Sales growth of 3.1% is nothing to write home about, but after a super-disappointing Christmas, retailers were generally pleased to see the lift. But that will not be a universally held view, as the second chart shows.
February saw Hardware, Building & Garden Supplies sales up 2.6%, continuing a long run of growth in this DIY world. But for more elaborate purchases such as Furniture, Floor Coverings and Homewares, the situation is becoming more and more difficult. The 2.9% fall in retail sales is the fourth successive month of negative or flat sales growth.
Overall, these two sectors show the trouble that Retail Sales are in. It was just four years ago that monthly growth above 5% was not unheard of. Perhaps tax cuts and lower interest rates will help
To go straight to the dashboard and take a closer look at the data, click here.
