New Zealand’s March quarter log extractions were down 4.1% compared to the December quarter of 2018, with the major grade – export logs – down 5.4%. Most export logs are despatched to China, possibly reflecting the general slowdown in the Chinese economy. However, on an annualised basis, total extractions were up 7.3% to 36.928 million m3 for the year-ended March 2019.
The March quarter was the second successive decline from the quarterly peak reached in the September quarter of 2018, with all the indicators pointing to a continuation of the downturn that can be observed in the chart below.
To go straight to the dashboard and take a closer look at the data, click here.
The table below presents the annualised extractions by type. This headline annual data shows that in aggregate, New Zealand’s extractions lifted 7.3% to 36.928 million m3 over the year-ended March 2019. It also demonstrates that despite the more recent events, on an annualised basis, export log extractions were up a solid 10.9% over the full year.
| YE Q1’18 | YE Q1’19 | YoY % Change | % of Total | |
| Saw Logs Removals | 8,043 | 8,359 | 3.9% | 22.6% |
| Peeler Logs | 1,224 | 1,250 | 2.2% | 3.4% |
| Small Logs | 1,304 | 1,299 | -0.4% | 3.5% |
| Pulp Logs | 3,564 | 3,557 | -0.2% | 9.6% |
| Export Chips | 276 | 257 | -7.0% | 0.7% |
| Export Logs | 20,017 | 22,206 | 10.9% | 60.1% |
| Total | 34,428 | 36,928 | 7.3% |
Export logs accounted for 60.1% of New Zealand’s total extractions over the most recent year, up 2% from the 58.1% recorded for the year-ended March 2018. In that context, we might anticipate that falls in the largest volume would control the changes in quarterly extractions, and so it turned out to be, as the next table shows.
| 2018Q4 | 2019Q1 | QOQ | Q1’18 v Q1’19 | |
| Saw Logs Removals | 2,019 | 1,944 | -3.7% | 6.1% |
| Peeler Logs | 316 | 286 | -9.6% | 0.4% |
| Small Logs | 323 | 313 | -2.9% | -0.3% |
| Pulp Logs | 874 | 875 | 0.1% | 2.7% |
| Export Chips | 34 | 79 | 133.6% | 41.1% |
| Export Logs | 5,747 | 5,438 | -5.4% | 14.6% |
| Total | 9,313 | 8,935 | -4.1% | 10.5% |
As the table demonstrates, compared to the December quarter, New Zealand’s log extractions were down 4.1%, driven lower in the main by the 5.4% decline in the export log harvest.
To demonstrate how quickly a market can turn, it is notable, as the final column in the table shows, that extractions in the March quarter of 2019 were 10.5% higher than those recorded for the prior corresponding period.
