Feeding in to growing household consumption measured in the GDP data, Australia’s retail sales grew by 3.8% for the year-ended January 2016, measured on a seasonally adjusted basis. This compares with 3.7% growth for the year-ended January 2014. Very importantly, growth for the month of January was 0.3%, rallying from the flatline recorded in December 2015.
After some periods displayed in the chart below that saw strong retail sales growth, the monthly and annual retail sales data has trended downwards since late 2014. However, as the ‘year-end’ red line shows, with a couple of exceptions, the downwards trend appears to be less volatile than was the case in 2013.
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Retail sales growth appears to be in a period of stability, and possibly predictability.
Turning to specific sectors of interest, retail sales growth was very strong in Furniture and Floor Coverings and Hardware, Building and Garden Supplies.
Retails sales for Furniture and Floor Coverings up 0.5% in January 2016 compared to previous month and up 5.6% year ending, seasonally adjusted. Hardware, Building and Garden Supplies up 2.1% in January 2016 compared to the previous month of December 2015 and up 7.1% year ending, seasonally adjusted.
This is displayed in the chart below.
To go straight to the dashboard and take a closer look at the data, click here.
Although both the relevant sub-sectors have flattened out in recent months, retails sales in both remain relatively strong and very stable, considered on a longer-term basis.
Statistics Count has opined previously that while dwelling approvals remain strong, a year and more later, the tail of retail sales to finish and decorate a house and make it into a home will continue. That seems to be a driver for retail sales of the Furniture group, as well as of the Hardware group.
The other factor that is clearly worth noting is that growth of sales of Hardware, Building and Garden Supplies have started to outstrip those of Furniture, Floor Coverings and Homewares. The current expansion in expenditure on alterations and additions may well be a driver of this recent skew. Whether it continues into the cooler months will be of interest and may even be of direct relevance to readers and their businesses.
