Dated: 31 July 2023
Australia’s imports of sawn softwood products fell 19.3% year-ended May 2023, declining to 723,757m3. Remarkably, on a monthly basis, imports totalled just 50,433 m3 in May, down almost 51% compared to May 2022. Import prices also continued to moderate, falling 7.5% in May to average AUDFob593/m3, down from a peak of AUDFob868/m3 just six months earlier in November 2022.
The total import experience can be observed in the chart below.
While overall, the import volume has been lower, there are several specific import grades that have been up significantly over the last year:
- 11.10.34 (159,406 m3 +64.0%)
- 11.99.06 (15,521 m3 +12.9%)
- 11.99.15 (99,204 m3 +131.0%)
The chart below shows the largest volume product in this group. The sharp rise in imports from January 2022 (in part related to their having been import code changes) is evident, but just as significant – shown on the red line – is the beginning of the solid correction underway as imports decline.
As the next chart shows, New Zealand has continued as the major supplier (56,417 m3 year-ended May), with its supply up 43.1% for the year. Second-placed Germany has seen its imports rise 132% to 21,829 m3 and China is third, having delivered 20,500 m3, up 275% on the year prior.
While this product is spread around the country, Melbourne is the main destination as the chart below demonstrates.
Additionally, two import grades have been lower over the last year but are significantly higher than they were two years ago:
- 11.10.39 (year-ending May 21 128,516 m3, year-ending May 23 145,394 m3)
- 12.10.16 (year-ending May 21 185,556 m3, year-ending May 23 217,461 m3)
The latter group is dressed non-pine (fir or spruce) softwoods, where imports commenced rising in mid-2020 and peaked two years later. They are now trending down, averaging around 10-12,000 m3 per month, but still making a much-elevated contribution.
Germany had been the big mover and contributor in this grade as can be seen below. Year-ended May, its contribution was down 41% to a still large 95,883 m3. Estonia by contrast, in second place, saw its contribution up 7.5% over the same period to total 43,266 m3.
year-ended May:
- Austria 34,296m3 up +44.6%
- China 26,015m3 up +100.1%
- Finland 32,991 up +8.7%
- Latvia 22,965m3 up +16.6%
- Lithuania 106,649m3 +3.6%
- New Zealand 115,116 up +10.2%
- Poland 32,812 up +2.5%
The chart here also shows – and it has to because volumes are down – that four countries saw their shipments fall dramatically over the year:
- Canada 19,534m3 down -51.0%
- Estonia 61,543m3 down -33.3%
- Germany 148,548m3 down -23.7%
- Sweden 46,420m3 down -65.4%
In terms of ports or states of discharge, the last year has seen major Eastcoast ports (Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne) all down, reflecting the overall year-ending decline. By contrast, Fremantle continues to experience import growth, with volumes year-ending May lifting to 57,046 m3, up 113% on the prior year.
